The Planning Fallacy, A Common Cause Of Unproductiveness

The planning fallacy is a concept we all know. It is related to the all-too-common phenomenon that planning doesn’t match the facts. This, particularly, in terms of time.

It happens in any context, both professionally and personally. We prove this when we make a to-do list and, at the end of the day, week, or month, many of those activities are still unfulfilled.

This inconsistency between planning and execution has many consequences in terms of time, of course. However, it also has implications in terms of resources, productivity and efficiency. Even the planning fallacy can have very serious effects on the emotional plane.

The Origin of the Planning Fallacy

Since the beginning of the Industrial Age, people began to talk about the planning fallacy, although it was not exactly known by that name. When it asserted itself in the world of industrial production and, therefore, in series production, the time factor took on a special importance. The central objective in this context was defined as producing the maximum, but in the shortest amount of time. On that depended, and still depends, profitability.

Since then, both at the organizational and individual levels, planning has become a relevant exercise. Despite this, it quickly became apparent that planning on paper almost never fitted in with actual execution practiced.

Several decades passed before we achieved highly consistent planning at the organizational level. At the same time, at the individual level and in companies where production depended more on people than on machines, this began to appear as an impossible task.

It was in 1979 that Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky defended the existence of the planning fallacy. They understood that this problem was very common and found that behind it all there was a cognitive aspect. A self-deception associated with limitations in the perception of reality.

Features of the planning fallacy

Over time, it was possible to describe in detail the characteristics of the planning fallacy. Nowadays, it is understood as an illusory perception of time that induces us to make mistakes in planning activities.

Below, we detail the main features of the planning fallacy:

• It was detected that, at the time of planning, the visualization of a more optimistic scenario is prioritized. This means that plans are made based on the idea that everything will happen normally, without setbacks, eventualities or unforeseen events.
• Delusional thinking stands out. This is called the type of approach influenced more by desire itself than by an objective assessment of reality. In other words, one thinks with desire.
• There is an inadequate interpretation of the performance itself. When planning, people positively assess their own capabilities. They assume they are able to get things done very easily and in a short amount of time. This is one of the main factors in the planning fallacy.

• If planning takes place collectively, people tend to get carried away by the desire to impress others. In this case, they want to demonstrate that they are very efficient and, therefore, make inaccurate calculations of the time required by the tasks.

Equally, it is common for people to have the conviction that the faster they do things, the better they will be evaluated by others. So they irresponsibly schedule the time they need to do something.

The consequences of the planning fallacy

The main consequence of the planning fallacy is inadequate time management. In some cases, this also consists of a mismatch in the control of resources, leading to a deficient evaluation in terms of expectations.

However, all this is not the most serious. The really most costly is the price you pay on the emotional level. The subjective result of the planning fallacy is a constant feeling of frustration and a variable dose of permanent stress. Not following through on plans creates feelings of tension and unease.

The way to avoid this cognitive aspect is to write down past experiences. They add reliable data on the true amount of time each activity requires. When planning, it is always better to propose a margin of extra time to be able to address possible unforeseen events or eventualities. This keeps you from falling into those cycles of frustration that do so much damage.